Dylan Cease’s Velocity Dip: Should Blue Jays Fans Worry Down the Stretch?

Dylan Cease’s four-seam fastball has dipped below 95 m.p.h. for consecutive starts for the first time in his MLB career, marking a concerning late-season trend
Historical data shows Cease is significantly more effective when throwing fastballs in the high-90s, with better strikeout rates and overall performance metrics in that velocity range
The veteran pitcher’s success has been tied to elite velocity throughout his career, with whiff rates dropping noticeably when his heat sits below 95 m.p.h.
Despite velocity concerns, Cease’s improved secondary stuff—particularly his emerging changeup and slider—may allow him to survive the fastball decline better than earlier in his career
The Blue Jays face uncertainty heading down the stretch, as there’s limited historical precedent for Cease succeeding with sub-95 m.p.h. fastballs
The good news: Cease is better positioned than ever to navigate a velocity dip thanks to enhanced repertoire diversity, though a small rebound seems hard to count on this late in the season